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New Jersey Poll strongly for Obama!

Daily Kos

Monmouth University Polling Institute 4/30/08

The Presidential Race

Among the three remaining major presidential contenders, Barack Obama has the highest favorability rating among Garden State voters. The Illinois senator is viewed favorably by 58%, compared to 27% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. New Jersey is split on his primary opponent, with 46% viewing Hillary Clinton favorably and 43% unfavorably. Voter opinion is also divided on the expected Republican nominee – 39% give John McCain a favorable rating compared to 45% who are unfavorable.

Clinton bested Obama in the New Jersey presidential primary on February 5th by a 54% to 44% margin. However, the ongoing nomination contest seems to have given some Garden State Democrats second thoughts. Currently, more Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents say they would like to see Obama (45%) rather than Clinton (38%) get the party’s nomination.

“It appears that less than three months after giving Hillary Clinton a 10 point victory inthe state’s primary, some New Jersey voters feel buyer’s remorse,” said poll director Patrick Murray. “Many state Democrats are concerned that the prolonged battle could hobble their party’s eventual nominee in November.”

Nearly 4-in-10 (39%) New Jersey Democrats say that the ongoing contest between Clinton and Obama will hurt the eventual nominee’s chances of winning in November, compared to only 13% who say it will actually help the nominee. Another 42% say the current primary campaign will have no effect on whether the Democrat can win in November.

While Democrats may want to unite behind a nominee, few New Jersey voters feel thatthe Clinton-Obama contest is having any lasting negative effects on race relations in the country. Equal numbers say that the Democratic campaign has brought blacks and white closer together (19%) as has pushed the two races apart (19%). Fully half (50%) say that the Democratic campaign hasn’t had much effect on race relations one way or the other.

The poll also found that New Jersey is shaping up as true to its “blue state” reputation, no matter who gets the Democratic nomination. At this stage, Barack Obama leads John McCain by a sizable 24 point margin among the state’s voters – 56% to 32%. Hillary Clinton is also an early favorite over the Republican nominee, besting McCain by a smaller but still significant 14 point margin – 52% to 38%.

Importantly, Obama is doing particularly well among New Jersey’s independent voters, outpolling McCain by 50% to 33%. Clinton and McCain are virtually tied among this group at 42% to 41%. Regardless of who the contenders are in November, New Jersey voters indicate a strong preference for seeing a Democrat (57%) rather than a Republican (25%) take the White House in 2008.  Link to Daily Kos article / Monmouth Uni poll

Discussion

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  1. Obama’s Jersey lead reflected in this poll would be tremendously helpful to Brack Obama but for the fact that the NJ primary election was 3 months ago, and that he lost there by double digits.

    Editor’s comment in reply:

    “That is true, however what it does indicate, is the significant drop in a big state’s support for Hillary Clinton, someone who unreliably claims she could win big states, and the corresponding rise in support for Barack Obama as people get to know him – and secondly it demonstrates the large lead Obama currently has over John McCain if a general election were held at this time”. JH

    Posted by Stephen Gianelli | May 2, 2008, 9:28 am